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There are a few good races left as we head into the last fortnight of the regular season. In the ML, Boston and New York are fighting for the Banks Division crown, with the team that falls short still leading in what will be a close wild card race with Vienna and from-out-of-nowhere Chessie. The WL, meanwhile, features all the excitement of paint drying as all three divisions are all but wrapped up (in fact, Spalding clinched the Foxx in June, as we recall). There’s a mildly interesting wild card contest between Homer and Bradford, who trails by 3 games. This time around, we’ll go through the rankings and then hit our playoff predictions. These predictions come from the same people who predicted that Superior would win the Foxx, so keep in mind the fact that we are morons as you read our picks. We will point out that while we might lament the fact that Spalding and Falls Church can’t meet in the World Series, and no ML team seems to match either of them, the ML did win the interleague matchup this year, so let’s not be so sure that the ML doesn’t have what it takes to win the crown.
1. Spalding Aeros – Previous Ranking: 1 (-) –
Chris Huckstep and Scott Puffer are a combined 39-6 this season, each making his own case to take the CAHMWLPOTY award away from David Toon this season (Huckstep has more wins, but Puffer has the better overall numbers). Now add John Nissen to the mix, and suddenly this pitching staff turns into one of the league’s best, which is something we don’t recall ever saying about a Spalding staff. We still recall this as the staff led by Jerry Virgin and his 20-wins and 4.50 ERA.
2. Falls Church Frenzy – Previous Ranking: 2 (-) –
You don’t hear all that much about him, but what really makes the Frenzy offense go (they’ve scored the second most runs in the league this season) is their leadoff man Chris McDill, who has a .382 OBP against right-handed pitching and 67 stolen bases. But it’s a good thing that the Frenzy don’t face too many lefties in the DiMaggio (only 28 total games against lefties this year) because McDill’s OBP drops to .266 against southpaws.
3. Bowie Knives – Previous Ranking: 7 (+4) –
The step down from the Aeros and Frenzy is a big one, but the Knives have impressed as one of the league’s best teams in the second half of the season. Keep in mind this a team that was ranked #17 in our early-season edition of the power rankings. If you want to pin this turnaround on a single player, because you are simplistic like that and ignore the intricacies of a team game, then look no further than Herb Matthias. In the first 3 months of the season, Matthias had an OPS of .735, .655, and .586. But since the start of July, he’s hit .361 and has a .952 OPS. If the first half of his season had been like the second half, we’d be talking about him for MVP.
4. Boston Big Digs – Previous Ranking: 3 (-1) –
Neither Boston nor New York is coming up big in September so far. Boston maintains the upper hand in the division race, but needs more from several key members if their lineup. Ricardo Saenz, Santiago Barraza, John Coffin, and Rob Weber are hitting a combined .123 in each of their last 5 games. Those are batters 1, 2, 4, and 5 in their lineup. If that trend continues, Boston won’t just blow their lead in the division, they’ll lose the wild card, too.
5. New York Empire – Previous Ranking: 5 (-) –
While the Boston hitters are struggling, the New York starting pitchers are doing the same. Starters Vinny Huertas, Ken Araujo, and Ryan Wolcott are a combined 0-7 with a 6.56 ERA. And rookie of the year candidate Mark Samuels, who was 7-6 with a 2.34 ERA at the end of July, has tanked as the season has concluded, 1-5 with a 4.93 ERA in his last 9 starts. Only ace Melvin Allshouse seems to be holding this pitching staff together.
6. Biloxi Hurricanes – Previous Ranking: 8 (+2) –
On the season, Biloxi has scored a whopping 6 runs more than they have allowed, and yet barring a total collapse this team is poised to win their division easily. The season-ending injury to 22 year-old phenom Chad Nieman really hurt the Canes. His replacement is 21 year-old Willie Coffey, who is 0-3 with a 7.11 ERA in September. His poor performance aside, it’s always nice to see a young player like that get his chance at a (giggle) cup of (giggle) Coffey (giggle) in the big leagues (giggle).
7. Homer Yetis – Previous Ranking: 12 (+5) –
The Yetis are in good shape to actually make one of our predictions come true and win the wild card. The Yetis also take home the award for league-worst pinch hitter in Scott “Stump” Murray, who has 5 hits in 35 pinch hitting appearances (.143 average) this season. In August and September, he has an OPS of .276 and .258, respectively. But lousy pinch hitting aside, this is a pitching team, with the 3rd best staff in the league, and a good pitching staff can be very scary in a short playoff series.
8. St. Boni Bashers – Previous Ranking: 9 (+1) –
St. Boni still enjoys a 5-game lead in the Gibson, but their hopes of advancing far into the playoffs could be in jeopardy if Park Seung-Yeop doesn’t emerge from his slump. He’s 2-4 with a 7.18 ERA in his last 6 starts, and is 4-9 with a 5.24 ERA since the start of July. And this is a guy with a WHIP under 1 for his previous 4 seasons, so the Bashers were clearly counting on him to win some games in the postseason.
9. Vienna Buzz – Previous Ranking: 4 (-5) –
The Buzz take a fall in this edition of the rankings because they’re currently 3rd in their division and 3rd in the ML wild card standings. But they stay in the top-10 because they are the unluckiest team in the league. If the world were run by Pythagoras, Vienna would have the best record in all of the ML, not trailing Bowie by 7.5 games in the Musial. But the Buzz have lost a league-high 30 one-run games, winning only 19. A lot of their top hitters just come up small in close/late situations: Arias – .588 OPS, Skipworth – .571 OPS, Fogel – .652 OPS, Rivero – .642 OPS, Harvey – .694 OPS, and, worst of all, Blanck – .373 OPS.
10. Bradford Bulls – Previous Ranking: 6 (-4) –
The middle of the lineup has carried this team all year. Matt Sheedy is a legitimate MVP candidate, with a .545 slugging percentage and 18 stolen bases. Paul Edgintton, John Witzel, and Pete Tondreau have all been great too. But the Bulls’ pitching staff will be what keeps them from the playoffs (unless they can make up their 3-game deficit to Homer in the wild card), where only Byron Dodgen and Bill Ortiz have been acceptable in the starting rotation.
11. Chessie Ironhorse – Previous Ranking: 19 (+8) –
Chessie takes a huge jump up the power rankings as one of the league’s hottest teams. Their record puts them a game ahead of Vienna now (1.5 games out of the ML wild card), but we couldn’t bring ourselves to rank them ahead of Vienna when their Pythagorean says they should have a sub-.500 record right now. Still, this team is a real contender right now for that last playoff spot, and if they take it, a lot of the credit should go to Bernardo Gonzales, who is 4-0 with a 1.63 ERA in September, striking out 22 while only walking 4.
12. Orchard Park Blizzard – Previous Ranking: 10 (-2) –
With Orchard Park coming in at #12, the entire Musial Division is in the top half of the power rankings. The Blizzard are 4.5 games out of the wild card, and with 3 teams ahead of them that looks almost insurmountable. The Blizzard have scored the 5th-most runs in the league despite not having any star hitter. And they have allowed the 8th most runs in the league largely because of not having any star pitcher.
13. Chattooga Eagles – Previous Ranking: 11 (-2) –
The Eagles sit 5 games back in a weak Gibson Division, still mathematically alive but realistically probably not. But Walter Brindle will do his best to try to will the Eagles into the playoffs. If they do pull off the unlikely, Brindle’s 5 home runs and 16 RBI (.600 slugging percentage) so far in September could be the starting point for a memorable, but we have a feeling that the memorable part of Brindle’s season will be the 3-month span from June to August when he had a .340 slugging percentage and only 8 home runs and 23 RBI in 291 at-bats. Not much of a follow-up to his all-star performance last year.
14. Superior Moo – Previous Ranking: 13 (-1) –
Our preseason pick to win the Banks, the Moo stand a mere 24.5 games out of first. If we were to pick out one reason for this failure, as we are wont to do, it would have to be pitcher Guadalupe Tovar’s .016 batting average. (Does the analytical skill we displayed there help explain how we were so wrong in our preseason prediction for the Foxx?) More seriously, the Moo were expecting a whole lot more from Mike Linscott, who has had an OPS over .800 for the last 4 seasons before tanking this season, making almost 7 million dollars to post a .568 OPS.
15. St. Paul Stogies – Previous Ranking: 15 (-) –
The Stogies’ downfall this season? Well, they were 60-56 against right-handed pitching, but an ugly 10-24 against lefties. The best explanation for that lies with their cleanup hitter, Erik Eno. Against righties Eno has given the Stogies their free agent money’s worth, with a .878 OPS. But while Eno has always hit better against righties, he has always held his own against lefties, and had a .789 OPS against southpaws last year. This year he has a .589 OPS against lefties.
16. South Beach Sunburn – Previous Ranking: 20 (+4) –
The Sunburn actually have a pretty good record lately and find themselves only a game below .500, but fans of the old-time Sunburn glory should hold off in their excitement of their team’s impending resurgence, because according to Pythagoras this team should be 11 games under .500. Eric Quinn keeps getting on base and giving this offense a chance, but no matter how many times we tell him, he will just not stay put on first base, and it hurts his team. He’s been caught stealing 45 times now in the last two years, successful in less than 60% of his attempts.
17. Halifax Atlantics – Previous Ranking: 14 (-3) –
Halifax might boast one of the worst contract extensions in recent memory. Following the 1969 season, Quam got a 3-year extension paying him 5.65 million dollars a year. His return on that investment? In 1970 he went 2-9 with a 6.81 ERA in 15 starts before earning a demotion to AAA (where he did quite well, actually, 9-2 with a 1.35 ERA). He got back to the majors last year and had a 4.98 ERA, mostly out of the bullpen. And he’s won a starting job again this year and has a 4.96 ERA. And he’s heading into free agency on a high note (as in, a high ERA), with a 15.92 ERA over his last 4 starts.
18. Latrobe Lightning – Previous Ranking: 22 (+4) –
Ok, we were a bit hasty in giving out the league’s worst pinch hitter award to Scott Murray. We forgot some strong competition from Latrobe’s Tony Anderson, who has a .164 OBP coming off the bench, yet has somehow managed to accumulate 55 pinch hitting plate appearances. Happily, Anderson is at least only being paid the league minimum.
19. Cold Blitz – Previous Ranking: 17 (-2) –
Well, as he was struggling earlier in the season, we suggested that Tom Scranton needed a day off, and he’s been given a lot of days off, relegated to only 76 at-bats since the start of July. And he’s been great in that time, with a .618 slugging percentage. Next year is Scranton’s contract year, and we’re predicting right now that he’s poised to have a breakout year and really earn himself a big payday. Unfortunately for Scranton, we suck at predictions.
20. Honshu Nymphs – Previous Ranking: 21 (+1) –
Honshu must have been the only bad team to actually add players at the trade deadline, trading for Adam Wigginton. They were able to get rid of the contract for Clifton Derouen in the process (Derouen was poised to make about 3 million a year for the next 14 years, playing largely in AAA). Wigginton is giving Nymphs fans reason to hope for next year, recently breaking out of his long slump with 5 home runs in 52 September at-bats after hitting the same number in 201 at-bats in July and August.
21. Melbourne Mosquitoes – Previous Ranking: 23 (+2) –
The Bugs have actually played fairly well lately, now only 29.5 games out of first place. Despite another fine season from Roscoe Cribb, offense was this team’s undoing, as they are next-to-last in runs scored in the league. Anyway, we will use this space to mourn the loss of retiring Billy Long. The Bugs have let Long go out with a bang, giving him the 264 plate appearances he needs to really show the world what a pathetic shell of his former first-round-pick self he is these days. His .383 OPS this year really ranks him among the worst seasons in the history of this league.
22. St. Louis Assault – Previous Ranking: 18 (-4) –
Poor Barry Keith has to be wondering if he’ll ever win another game. The kid hasn’t won since July 9. Since then he’s gone 0-7 with a 5.53 ERA. His biggest problem? He’s not good enough to play in the majors. That one little problem has really hampered his major league career.
23. Medicine Hat Juffowup – Previous Ranking: 16 (-7) –
It’s been all bad for Medicine Hat since the all-star break, since when this team’s inability to hit or pitch has been problematic. This season has seen a lot of rookies for Medicine Hat get a chance at the big leagues and fail. These are some good prospects, who maybe were rushed into the bigs. It’s hard to pick which kid has been the bigger rookie bust, first baseman Billy Sabol (.543 OPS in 519 plate appearances for the former #6 overall pick) or gabe Newman (4-17 with a 7.97 ERA in 28 starts).
24. Texas Timewarp – Previous Ranking: 24 (-) –
Texas was certainly the most active terrible team at the deadline, trading away all of their pieces of any value (Wigginton, Miguel Arispe, and Jaime Sorrell, notably). It will still be quite a while before this team is competitive again, because this is by far the least talented team in the league, with both the fewest runs scored and the most runs allowed.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
Before making our predictions, we will once again impress upon you our predictive capability by going over our preseason predictions:
DiMaggio – Falls Church. We got this right, but a blind squirrel could have found this particular nut.
Foxx – Superior. With Spalding missing the wild card. Um, yeah, right.
Feller – St. Louis. Currently ranked #22 in the power rankings. Yeah, good call there.
WL wild card – Homer. That looks like it might be a good call, but we had them just barely edging Spalding out.
Musial – Orchard Park. Currently in last place in the division (but the league’s best last-place team)
Banks – Boston. Might actually get this one right.
Gibson – Chattooga. They’re 5 games out of first, so it wasn’t THAT bad a pick.
ML wild card – New York. Might get that right too.
So all we are saying is, don’t put a lot of stock on the predictions that come spewing out of our pens.
Anyway, without knowing exactly who will be playing who in the playoffs, we’ll just make general predictions:
- There will not be any surprise upsets in the WL. The Frenzy will play the Aeros in the WLCS, both easily getting by their first-round opponent.
- Despite the worst record of any ML playoff team, St. Boni will pull off a first-round upset.
- John Nissen wins game 7 to put the Aeros past the Frenzy and into the World Series.
- Roger Summerfield wins the MLCS MVP and leads Boston to the World Series.
- The Aeros take all of 4 games to win the World Series.
So the big question for the playoffs is, is the fact that we are predicting a big win for the Aeros going to result in them getting upset in the first round? We remind you that we suck at predictions.
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Here’s the thing: in this edition of the power rankings, we kept running into our old rule that no team can move by more than 10 spots in the rankings. That was fine when we did these things on a bi-weekly basis, but now that we’re older and lazier and doing them on more of a bi-monthly basis, that really restricts us. Especially when we do something stupid based on a team’s record 12 games into the season. Case in point: the Biloxi Hurricanes. They were pretty dreadful in the first fortnight of this 1972 campaign, but since then have become on of the league’s clear best teams. We would rank them in the top three, but rules are rules, and therefore the Canes get stuck in the #8 spot. The good news is that next time around they have the capability of jumping into the #1 slot. On the other hand, even if Texas wins every one of their remaining games, our bi-monthly rankings frequency say they can’t possibly get to #1. Or probably even into the top 10.
Anyway, since we’re at the all-star break, we’ll be sure to give you some all-star stats that we can pretend our meaningful. It’s just our way of saying to you: “We don’t feel like doing any real analysis and will instead just focus on the first stupid stat we see when we look at a team.” That’s a promise from us to you. And by the way, for whatever reason, Halifax is really dominating the league in terms of weird and random statistics. On to the rankings!
1. Spalding Aeros – Previous Ranking: 4 (+3) –
The Aeros are well on their way to passing 100 wins this season, making us look foolish for (narrowly) excluding them from our postseason predictions. They’re doing it like they usually do it: scoring tons of runs. Their 506 runs scored leads the league by a wide margin – Boston is #2 at 441 runs, and they are one of only 3 teams to even have 400 or more runs. But for an all-star stat, we want to point out what the Spalding offense isn’t doing: stealing bases. Their 7 stolen bases are fewest in the league, again by a wide margin. Next lowest is Homer’s 29, and Homer is one of only two teams with fewer than 50 stolen bases.
2. Falls Church Frenzy – Previous Ranking: 1 (-1) –
Why are the Frenzy successful? Well, they’re second in the league in stolen bases (we’ll talk about #1 later), helping out the offense, but they’re also tough to run against. Two Frenzy starters are in the top 10 in runners caught stealing (on that pitcher’s watch). One is David Toon, and the other is the league leader, Willie Martini. The Frenzy have nailed 12 of the 18 batters to try to steal off of Martini. By the way, the Frenzy only caught one potential base-stealer when Martini pitched last season. We believe that makes Martini the leading candidate for the league’s most improved player!
3. Boston Big Digs – Previous Ranking: 3 (-) –
Ricardo Saenz seems to be taking his game to the next level. Now in his 4th season, the 27 year-old outfielder leads the league with 49 extra-base hits, more than he hit all of last year in 475 at-bats. Unfortunately, he’s struggled against lefties – this is unfortunate because Boston just seems to face so many lefties. Eight of the top nine hitters in terms of at-bats against left-handed pitching are from Boston, led by John Kellett’s 150. That Banks Division is crazy, with 4 of the 5 starters in New York and 3 of 5 in Honshu and Halifax being lefties. The Boston rotation is all righties, by the way.
4. Vienna Buzz – Previous Ranking: 13 (+9) –
We love it when a player’s nickname really defines that player, as it does with Melchor “Slug” Arias and his ML-leading 11 times grounding into a double play. What’s interesting here (and this has nothing to do with Vienna, for which we apologize) is that 12 (12!) players in the WL have as many or more GIDPs than the ML leader Arias (and the 5 MLers who he is tied with for that all-star stat). Anyone want to venture a guess as to why the WL grounds into so many more double plays?
5. New York Empire – Previous Ranking: N/A (-3) –
The rookie of the year race in the ML is going to be a good one between rookie starters Enrique Santiago (8-3, 2.79 ERA) of Chessie and Mark Samuels (5-5, 2.28) of New York. What’s really surprising here, for those of you that don’t follow the goings-on of the New York pitching staff religiously like we do, is that Samuels is a 29 year-old rookie. It’s rare that someone who wasn’t good enough to make the major leagues at age 28 suddenly arrives on the scene and not only leads all rookies in ERA, but pitches like a CAHMMLPOTY award winner. Samuels is even second in the ML in ERA, only one hundredth of an ERA point behind the leader, Boston’s Lloyd Jackson. Which means that Samuels has a shot at not only being rookie of the year, but pitcher of the year in the ML.
6. Bradford Bulls – Previous Ranking: 6 (-) –
We all know that any old loser can hit a sacrifice fly at home, with the home crowd behind you coaching that lazy fly ball into the mid-outfield. But on the road, with a hostile crowd cursing your ball to be too shallow to score the runner, you need a special kind of hitter. A hitter like Pete Tondreau, who leads the league with 4 sacrifice flies on the road. What a hero. That must be why the Bulls are playing so well right now (their current 2-8 streak notwithstanding). Also, congratulations to Tondreau for hitting a triple in June, his first in over a year. He now has 15 on his 12-year career. Even Frank Robichaud, the Glacier himself, hit 29 triples in his career.
7. Bowie Knives – Previous Ranking: 17 (+10) –
You have to feel sorry for Jon Routt, the ML leader in quality start percentage (85%, 17 out of 20), who somehow only has 5 wins on the season. He has given his team a chance to win in 17 starts this year, and his team has said no thank you 12 of those times. Weird thing is, he’s not even in the top 15 in the league in run support (he gets 3.5 runs per game, not good but not terrible). He’s really just a victim of Bowie’s lousy bullpen, which has a whopping 4.67 collective ERA and 10 blown saves.
8. Biloxi Hurricanes – Previous Ranking: 18 (+10) –
There’s a lot to like about the Biloxi Hurricanes these days. (We know Dan Curcio likes his salary!) Not only are they shooting to the top of these rankings, but their young players are really impressing. For example after giving up 21 runs in his first 12.1 innings of work this season (15.32 ERA) and earning himself a none-too-flattering mention in our last edition, 22 year-old Chad Nieman has gone 8-2 with a 1.70 ERA in his 14 starts since then. Meanwhile, 20 year-old Alberto Maldonado, who looks like the second coming of Danny McAlpin, is starting to hit well thanks to a good June. But we’re all about finding flaws here at Power Ranking Headquarters, and so we will point out that Maldonado leads all rookies with 6 times caught stealing, in just 9 stolen base attempts. We are sure that this fact will haunt Maldonado for the rest of his sure Hall of Fame career.
9. St. Boni Bashers – Previous Ranking: 11 (+2) –
The Bashers are leading their division right now, but they’re not playing all that well (rather, the division is playing quite poorly). Part of that is due to being a league-worst 9 games under .500 (4-13) in one-run games. Only one other team, South Beach (with 8) has won fewer than 10 one-run games. But that’s only part of the story as to why the Bashers have declined a bit from last year. The rest of the story – and this really should be obvious to anyone who even casually follows this league – is that the Bashers give up way too many triples to left-handed hitters. Consider that Jin-Soon Kim and Andres Guerrero, two of St. Boni’s top pitchers, are tied for the league lead with 5 triples allowed to left-handed hitters. In this league, that will kill you. And it has, except for the fact that St. Boni has a 5.5 game lead in their division.
10. Orchard Park Blizzard – Previous Ranking: 7 (-3) –
Only three teams have more than 100 stolen bases so far this year. St. Louis has 109 and Falls Church has 122. Way out ahead of everyone is Orchard Park, who has 190 stolen bases. For those of you who like ratios, that’s more than 27 stolen bases for every base Spalding has stolen this year. Three of the league’s top six base-stealers – Tom Wilson (39), Micah Morello (45), and Marion Vanwyk (league-leading 52) – play for Orchard Park. Stolen base fever might go a little too far in Orchard Park, though, as you have guys like Brian Warren (5 SB, 6 CS), Edgar Stange (5 SB, 5 CS), and especially Oscar Lafever (who has been caught in each of his four stolen base attempts) trying to unsuccessfully copycat the real Blizzard base-stealers.
11. Chattooga Eagles – Previous Ranking: 5 (-6) –
The six-slot fall for the Eagles can be largely attributed to the mediocre play of Tom Cheesman. In seven years in the majors, Cheesman has never finished a season with an OPS under .800, but it looks like that will change this year, as he’s hitting just .209 and has a .692 OPS. What’s interesting is the home/road split, where Cheesman has really disappointed the Chattooga fans with the league-leading (in a bad sense) low home batting average of .173 (compared to .243 on the road). Then again, his home/road OBP is almost equal due to Cheesman being tops in the ML in home walks, with 30. Ok, looking back at what we said earlier in this paragraph about the home/road splits being “interesting”, we’re sorry, we lied.
12. Homer Yetis – Previous Ranking: 9 (-3) –
We’ve already talked about the WL’s dominance in the category of grounding into double plays. Well, the grand master is Homer’s Ramon Garcia, who has bounced into a whopping 18 double plays already this season. What’s most impressive about this feat is that Garcia is the leadoff man for the Yetis, so his first at-bat every game by definition is not a candidate for a double play ball, and the pitcher will very rarely get on base for him, either, or will have bunted a baserunner over. So how does he ground into so many double plays when no one is on first base? Beats us. Garcia is otherwise a very good player. With 92 hits and 53 walks, we wonder where he finds the time to ground into so many double plays.
13. Superior Moo – Previous Ranking: 10 (-3) –
Is there a better bunter in the league than Olen Kyser? We think not, which is why his 10 sacrifice hits leads the league, with the next closest player having a measly seven. The fine bunting performance is all the explanation we need for Kyser’s 9-3 record and stingy 2.42 ERA. By way of comparison, St. Louis starter Barry Keith has only one sacrifice hit this season, and he is 2-7 with a 6.05 ERA. So the correlation between sacrifice hits and pitching effectiveness is quite clear.
14. Halifax Atlantics – Previous Ranking: 16 (+2) –
From the with-a-bat division of the couldn’t-hit-the-broad-side-of-a-barn department, we have the league leader in strikeouts, Halifax first baseman Rodrigo Acosta, who has whiffed 110 times already. He’s on pace for 200 strikeouts, which would put him behind only Shon Scott (1967) and Clifton Derouen (1969) for the all-time whiffiest seasons. To be fair, Scott walked 51 times in his 200+ strikeout season, and Derouen walked 65 times, so both of them can claim they were running deep counts by being selective. Not so for Acosta, who is on pace for only 31 walks. By the way, Halifax also features the player with the fewest strikeouts in the league also, Mario Montanez, who has struck out only 5 times in 277 plate appearances. In this all-star stat bonanza for Halifax, Montanez is also leading the league in fewest walks, with only one all season. In those same 277 plate appearances. Oh, and Montanez leads the league with 5 sacrifice hits in close/late situations (no one can make an out with the pressure on like he can!) Montanez is an all-star-statsman’s dream. And while we’re on Halifax, we’ve got one more thing, possibly the most unexpected moment of the season. On June 29, in a 12-inning game in Boston, newly acquired 38 year-old starting pitcher Mariano Archambault ended up catching. Yes, catching. He caught two innings and, more amazingly, threw out the only runner to attempt a stolen base. That makes him the league leader in caught stealing percentage among catchers, throwing out a healthy 100% of would-be base-stealers.
15. St. Paul Stogies – Previous Ranking: 24 (+9) –
The Stogies are up 9 spots from the basement this time around, and we think the reason why is that they have developed a mean streak. Case in point, check out their ace, Justin Facer. Facer is only 5’11” and 185 pounds, but he’s as intimidating as anyone in the league, because he’s mean. He’s one of the league’s more accurate pitchers, with only 19 walks allowed and two wild pitches in 136.2 innings pitched. And yet he leads the league with 13 hit batters. So you know that when he hits someone, he didn’t miss his target. And that attitude has rubbed off on his team and, somehow, not resulted in lengthy suspensions or hefty fines for Facer.
16. Medicine Hat Juffowup – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
We know our all-star stats have wowed you so far, but this one blows them all away in terms of relevance to results on the field. Of course, we are talking about Medicine Hat rookie centerfielder John Ortiz, who leads the league (ok, is tied for the league lead…but he leads among rookies!) in times getting on base due to catcher interference. With two. We believe the awe-inspiring nature of this particular stat speaks for itself, so we don’t have to come up with some crap about it.
17. Cold Blitz – Previous Ranking: 21 (+4) –
Well, if you have a player like Tom Scranton, you put him out on the field, and that’s exactly what the Blitz have done. Scranton leads all players at all positions in total defensive innings (781.1) and leads all first basemen in every other category (errors, total chances, putouts, double plays, and assists). Maybe he could use a break, but can you imagine the Cold offense without him…um, wait a minute, he’s only hitting .178 against right-handed pitching, and has a .688 OPS overall. Maybe this guy really does need a break.
18. St. Louis Assault – Previous Ranking: 8 (-10) –
It’s the bottom of the ninth inning and you’re losing by a run. There’s one out, the bases are loaded, and all the pressure is on as the pitcher’s spot comes to the plate. You can’t let the pitcher hit; you need to go to your bench. Who do you call on? If you’re St. Louis, you turn to Cliff Buchanan, who has 27 pinch hit plate appearances. Because he’s proven that he can hit a sacrifice fly right here and tie the game. He leads the league with two sacrifice flies as a pinch hitter. With him at the plate in this situation, you KNOW the game is going to extra innings. You can decide for yourself if we are complimenting or insulting Buchanan.
19. Chessie Ironhorse – Previous Ranking: 22 (+3) –
Ok, bear with us for a minute. Chessie reserve second baseman Bob Doles doesn’t actually lead the league in times hit by pitch, but of the league’s top 30 in HBP, Doles is easily the only one who has been hit by more pitches (9) than he has walked (7). This man clearly has no idea where any pitch is going – on every pitch he either swings or (and?) gets hit. By the way, when you look past the top 30 in HBP, two other guys you see with more HBP than walks are the aforementioned amazing Mario Montanez and his Halifax teammate Manuel Apodaca. Is there something in the water in Nova Scotia? Or in the ice?
20. South Beach Sunburn – Previous Ranking: 22 (+2) –
When the fans come to the ballpark, they want to see some offense from the home team. And nobody knows like that like Sunburn starter Bill “the Barbarian” Harris (that nickname isn’t as applicable as Arias’s in Vienna). Harris’s WHIP is a nice tidy 1.01 at home but that rises to 1.54 when he hits the road. Yes, he lets the opposing fans see some offense, as he leads the league in hits allowed on the road. That’s better for his popularity than James Blea, who not only leads the league in walks allowed at home, but also has a name that sounds like throwing up. Which is what the home fans want to do when they watch him pitch.
21. Honshu Nymphs – Previous Ranking: 14 (-7) –
And the award for worst command of the strike zone by hitgoes to…...(drum roll)…….the Honshu Nymphs! The Nymphs lead the league in strikeouts (778) and have the second fewest walks (226). And it’s really been a team effort, since no Honshu player leads his respective position in strikeouts (counting Mike Seltzer as a right fielder). Wait, we take that back. Turns out that Tim Nicklas is tied for the league lead in strikeouts among pitchers, with 25. The man has 38 at-bats and has struck out in 25 of them.
22. Latrobe Lightning – Previous Ranking: 15 (-7) –
For the last 13 years, the Lightning have followed their leader, Mario Maples, their leadoff man. He’ll go down in history as one of the league’s best ever leadoff hitters, and as he goes his team goes. And right now, that means that his team is making a lot of outs, following Maples’s lead, where he’s run into 17 outs on the base paths. And Jesus Cortes has followed, with the two of them tied for the league lead with 17 times caught stealing. Maples has been caught in 17 of his 34 attempts (50% for the math challenged) and Cortes has been even worse, being caught in 17 of his 27 attempts. Whichever coach is in charge of base running should be fired and replaced by someone who will take the all-important step of tying their shoelaces together to keep them in once place.
23. Melbourne Mosquitoes – Previous Ranking: 20 (-3) –
The Bugs are 20th in runs allowed, but only 15th in ERA. Why? Well, bad infield defense isn’t making things any easier on the pitchers. Roscoe Cribb (17) at third base and Ivan Norby (19) at shortstop both lead the league in errors at their respective positions. They make Ed Graham (6th in most errors among first basemen, with 6) and Joe Becker (3rd among second basemen, with 10) look like sure-handed defensive wizards. Which they are very much not.
24. Texas Timewarp – Previous Ranking: 19 (-5) –
Boy, it’s a real struggle to find any league leader in Texas. Even in a negative category. This is just an all-around dull team. They do lead the league in lowest winning percentage. Edwin Alcorn is tied for the league lead with 11 losses. And rookie (and new official power rankings favorite named player) Robbie Dunkelberger (seriously, that’s the man’s name) did go 16 straight at-bats without a hit at one point. That probably doesn’t lead the league, but it did give us a chance to mention his name. Yawn.
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It’s 1972, and we have been brought out of retirement – at least temporarily – to introduce the new season with the official power rankings. The excitement in the air as the season starts is so palpable you could trip over it. Unfortunately, we didn’t get to actually making preseason power rankings, and are therefore stuck with two-weeks-in syndrome. In the preseason rankings we would have put St. Boni in the top five, for example. Where do we put them after an astonishing 2-10 start? We can’t just rank them #24, can we? Similarly, Halifax won all of 60 games last year, so what do we do with their 7-5 start? We’ll do the best we can, but we just wanted to say up front that it is difficult to deal with two-weeks-in syndrome. Anyway, we don’t know how long we’ll stay out of retirement, but for now, on to the rankings…
1. Falls Church Frenzy – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
A 10-3 start coming off of their World Series championship season makes it an obvious choice to put the Frenzy in the top spot in the rankings. They’re doing it just like they did it last year: pitching. If you take out the debacle of starting closer Mike Grimes in place of the injured Glen Cotner one game (3 batters faced, zero outs, 2 earned runs), the starting rotation is 5-2 with a 2.24 ERA so far this season.
2. New York Empire – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
Just to keep the top of the power rankings from having something new, the other half of last year’s World Series, the Empire, also are off to a 10-3 start. New York is doing it with pitching, too, especially Melvin Allshouse, who, despite the handicap of being named Melvin, is already 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA. And 4 out of 5 New York starters, Mr. Melvin included, have a WHIP of 1.0 or less.
3. Boston Big Digs – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
It’s early, but it’s been a good start for our new favorite player, at least in terms of name comicality, Chang Newbill. He’s hitting .316 so far. Normally, a player hitting .316 in 19 at-bats wouldn’t be enough to warrant a mention in the power rankings. But the man’s name is Chang Newbill. Not quite the ring of Tanner Patty, but still quite pleasing to the ear.
4. Spalding Aeros – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
The Aero offense has scored the most runs in the league in only 11 games (2 fewer than Falls Church and New York, for example). Leading the way has been first baseman Mark Carroll, who already has 7 multi-hit games this season (including one 5-hit game) and has 7 hits in 11 at-bats against lefties. Also, not to be forgotten is the Sausage King himself, Sean Froman, who is hitting .458 on the young season.
5. Chattooga Eagles – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
Early in his career, Lee Lowe looked like a good bet to set an all-time wins record that would stand for a long time. But that won’t happen if his Eagles’ teammates have any say. And so far, they have. Lowe has given up all of 4 runs in his three starts this year (20 innings). The Eagles were shut out (1-0 and 3-0) in two of those games and scored 3 runs (in 10 innings) in the other game, leaving Lowe at 0-2 despite his 1.80 ERA.
6. Bradford Bulls – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
Watch as Lee Lowe drools over the run support Lloyd Dupree has gotten so far, 23 runs in 3 games started, making him 2-0 despite his 6.19 ERA. Anyway, Bradford has a set of young talented hitters ready to make their mark. It’s too bad that two of their top young players, Tom Lejeune and Willie Anderson, play the same position as Paul Edginton (first base), who has handling that position quite ably for this franchise for the last 7 years, with an OPS over .800 each of the last 4 seasons.
7. Orchard Park Blizzard – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
The best start for any pitcher has to go to Ken Opp, who has yet to give up a run in his three wins. Thanks to the magic of proportionality, we can project that if he keeps up what he’s been doing – he doesn’t even have to improve any to pull this off, keep in mind – he will finish the season 36-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his 271 innings pitched. We, for one, think he can do it.
8. St. Louis Assault – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
Bill Rubalcaba might just be the George Stallman for a new generation. Stallman, of course, caught all 162 games for Ridge in 1959 and hit .131 with no power in 567 at-bats. Well, Rubalcaba is trying to replicate that feat, catching all 11 games this season while wasting 48 at-bats with his .125 batting average and .289 OPS. On the other hand, unlike Stallman, who never even attempted a stolen base in his brief big-league career, Rubalcaba is 4 for 4 in stolen bases this year and was 26 for 30 last year. When’s the last time you saw a catcher run like that?
9. Homer Yetis – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
The Yetis paid 8 million a year for 4 years to have Todd Chang bat 7th in their lineup. We like Chang, but think it makes a better first name than last name. Meanwhile, Stump Murray had better start hitting soon. His .560 OPS doesn’t work well hitting behind Ernest Alberty, who might start to see a lot of free passes as the season goes on (hard to believe he hasn’t been intentionally walked yet this year). Not getting any offense from Murray is a problem because he’s already by far the worst defensive shortstop in the league. Still, that hasn’t kept the Yetis from a quick 7-4 start to the season.
10. Superior Moo – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
The Bovine offense is on fire to start the season, led by a potential rookie of the year candidate, the redundantly named Nick Nichols. He’s the #8 hitter in the lineup, but he already has 10 runs scored and 7 RBIs. He started the season in style, going 2-for-3 against David Toon, winner of the past two CAHMWLPOTY awards.
11. St. Boni Bashers – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
It’s hard to go 2-10 and make the top half of the power rankings, but the Bashers have pulled it off. It’s easy to see where they’ve gone wrong so far. Dee Terry: 4.85 ERA; Park Seung-Yeop: 4.74 ERA; Felix Sanchez: 10:57 ERA; Jin-Soon Kim: 8.68 ERA; Andres Guerrero: 3.75 ERA. Those five starting pitchers are a combined 1-8 this year. For the record, their combined career numbers are 367-281 with a 3.48 ERA. So we definitely see this pitching staff rebounding.
12. Medicine Hat Juffowup – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
The Vipe…Mysti…Juffowup (Juffowup???) invested 15 million dollars into the diminutive lefty Chris Tso, who had by far the best season in his career last season, at the age of 35, when he went 18-4 with a 2.71 ERA. Prior to that he was 56-68 in his career with a 3.95 ERA. So they were banking on him repeating last season’s performance for the next two years. Unfortunately for the Vipe…Mysti…Juffo… Unfortunately for Medicine Hat, Tso is making it look like last season was the aberration, 0-2 with a 5.52 ERA this year.
13. Vienna Buzz – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
In 11 games, the Buzz are scoring only 3.27 runs again, thanks largely in part to hitting only 3 home runs. The middle of the lineup combination of Bosquet, Fogel, and Rivero have slugging percentages of .286, .244, and ..311, respectively. Those numbers will obviously improve, which is why we’re willing to rank a 2-9 team so high.
14. Honshu Nymphs – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
Tim Nicklas might be 39 years old, but he’s still going strong, 2-1 with a 1.17 ERA so far this year. He’s 4 wins away from reaching 200 for his career, he’s never won fewer than 10 games a year, and is well on his way to Hall of Fame Consideration. More impressively, he’s led this Honshu pitching staff to allowing the fewest runs in the league, including 3 shutouts.
15. Latrobe Lightning – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
The Lightning haven’t gotten a whole lot of production from their 4-man catcher/first base platoon. Between Ronny Suarez, Harvey Swensen, Lloyd Stovall, and Steven Grable, this group has combined for a .180 batting average, .204 on-base percentage, and .281 slugging percentage in 93 plate appearances largely flushed down the toilet.
16. Halifax Atlantics – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
Halifax started 7-5, but we’re not ready to anoint them the comeback team of the year just yet. Excuse us if their 102 losses last season has us a bit wary. The addition of George Dunneback has paid off so far, as he is 2-1 with a 0.82 ERA so far (and has an .833 OPS at the plate!). Also, it’s nice to Old Man (Archie) Robinson find a new home in this his 18th full season in the majors. Too bad he can’t hit anymore.
17. Bowie Knives – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
Julian Oquendo was impressive, hitting .301 as a rookie last year. This year, as a 25 year old veteran, he’s being counted on to lead the team, and he hasn’t disappointed, hitting .347 so far. But it seems like someone who hits in the #2 hole who has been on base 22 times already this season should have scored more than 6 runs by now.
18. Biloxi Hurricanes – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
We’re not sure why Biloxi wanted Dan Curcio’s almost 19 million dollar a year salary for the next four years (Curcio will be 38 years old when he is making his last 19 million). By the way, he has a 9.31 ERA so far this season. He’s been a good role model for 21 year old megaprospect Chad Nieman, who has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his start without ever making it out of the fifth inning. In fact, in his last start he never even recorded a single out. Despite allowing 18 hits, 7 for extra bases, so far this year, we think Nieman is going to be a stud in the not-too-distant future.
19. Texas Timewarp – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
In three starts Mike Bashir’s longest outing lasted 2 innings. That’s rough on the bullpen. And speaking of the bullpen, one pitcher in that bullpen is rule 5 pick Ron Ellison, who is 25 years old and had a 6.13 ERA in 47 innings in single-A last year. Ellison was an 8th round pick back in 1967 but a lot of scouts see a world of potential in this kid. We see a guy who isn’t even good enough to start in single-A taking up a major league roster spot.
20. Melbourne Mosquitoes – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
Oh Billy Long, what happened to you? Remember that former #1overall pick who came up in 1958 as a surefire Hall of Famer, then was always a pretty good hitter but never a great one? Who only twice in his career hit better than .280? Well now he has a .070 slugging percentage in 43 at-bats for the Bugs. Billy, way to go out not with a bang but a whimper.
21. Cold Blitz – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
Ghost McNeese, who has been absolutely dominant so far this year, with RBIs in 8 games, for a total of 17 on the year, second only to Spalding’s Juan Sierra. Including McNeese, this team is stacked in the outfield, with good players like Dillon Mayon, James Beltran, and Cristian Alvarez – guys who could start on a lot of teams in this league – wasting away on the bench. Maybe some of them can be used as trade bait to improve a lackluster pitching staff.
22. Chessie Ironhorse – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
The death watch is on for Don Nelson, the world’s oldest 36 year-old. Chessie continues to keep Nelson around in hopes that he might somehow hit those 7 home runs he needs to pass Robert Ritz for the career home run lead (7 homers would put him at 400 for his career). Here’s a clue: it’s not going to happen. Nelson hit one home run last year (probably in Honshu…we’re just guessing) in 215 at-bats. Whatever he sold to the devil to be the dominant player he once was, the devil has come to collect.
23. South Beach Sunburn – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
The Burn made out well in the Quinn/Curcio deal, dumping what will be a huge hunk of dead salary in a couple years in return for a young star hitter in Quinn. Quinn has a chance to do something special here. Mike Skipworth, now in Vienna, is the career leader with 254 times caught stealing. Well Quinn is only 29 and has been thrown out 117 times in the last 3 seasons trying to steal, giving him 180 CS already on his young career. And he’s already been caught stealing 3 times this year (succeeding once!). This will be something exciting to watch over the next several seasons (not really).
24. St. Paul Stogies – Previous Ranking: N/A (-) –
A .459 OPS wasn’t what the Stogies had in mind when they shelled out 10 million a year for the next 4 years to get Erik Eno. We think it’s fair to say he’ll get better, even if we wonder if his career stats are a bit inflated by him former home park (Honshu). We were certainly impressed by him only striking out 15 times in 607 at-bats last year, though.
Finally, to start the season, we’ll give…
…OUR FEARLESS PREDICTIONS
Williams League:
DiMaggio Champs: Falls Church – No reason to think they won’t be right back where they were last year.
Foxx Champs: Superior – Another tight race between the Cows and Pigcats, but we’ll go with Superior this time.
Feller Champs: St. Louis – We really don’t know who else to pick here, so let’s go with what worked last year.
Wild Card: Homer – Homer surprises a lot of people, edging out Spalding for the wild card.
WL Champion: Falls Church – David Toon just keeps winning.
Mays League:
Musial Champs: Orchard Park – 3 teams compete for the division, none compete for the wild card.
Banks Champs: Boston – A good race between Boston and New York, both competing for the ML’s best record.
Gibson Champs: Chattooga – Another great race between the Eagles and Bashers, with the Eagles winning.
Wild Card: New York – The Empire make it back to the playoffs, edging out the Bashers for the wild card.
ML Champion: Chattooga – The Eagles and Diggers give us a 7-game MLCS for the ages.
World Series Champion: Falls Church – ESPN.com has been bought out by the Falls Church News & Restaurant. Picking the Frenzy means more newspaper and babyback rib sales. Plus, that pitching staff will be hard to beat.
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